A Weighted Spatio-Temporal Model for County Yields
51 Pages Posted: 7 Sep 2019
Date Written: July 3, 2019
This paper seeks to tackle the area yield distribution modelling problem by considering not only a spatial and temporal modelling framework, but also by treating both county and farm level information. We propose a model which combines on the one hand the cross-sectional spatially distributed data about temperature and precipitation over time and on the other hand the information relative to the acreage allocation at the farmers level. We demonstrate that beyond its forecasting power our model more adequately captures the dynamic covariation between the county level yields and the estimated local weather conditions compared with alternative models.
Keywords: Crop yields, crop insurance pricing, SARIMA, Gaussian process
JEL Classification: D24, O13, Q16, Q54
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