The Status Quo Theory of Depletion Does Not Explain the Israeli Parole Decisions

17 Pages Posted: 16 Sep 2019

See all articles by Øystein Daljord

Øystein Daljord

University of Chicago, Booth School of Business

Oleg Urminsky

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Jose-Manuel Ureta

Marine Farm

Date Written: December 3, 2017

Abstract

Danziger et al. (2011a) showed that the parole decisions of an Israeli court of parole are influenced by judicially extraneous factors such as the time of day the case is heard. It was suggested in the paper that the cyclical parole frequencies could be explained by a status quo theory of depletion, but it did not test the theory in the data. We first show that the statistical model used in Danziger et al. (2011a) can be interpreted as a behavioral model of a depletion process. Under this interpretation, the status quo theory is inconsistent with the reported results. The statistical model however imposes a restrictive assumption of depletion processes that are uniform across judges. Individual specific depletion processes, which is suggested by theory and supported by the data, affect the measurement of a key test statistic. Allowing for judge specific depletion processes, the evidence is more mixed, but we find overall little support for the status quo theory of depletion.

Suggested Citation

Daljord, Øystein and Urminsky, Oleg and Ureta, Jose-Manuel, The Status Quo Theory of Depletion Does Not Explain the Israeli Parole Decisions (December 3, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3448164 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3448164

Øystein Daljord

University of Chicago, Booth School of Business ( email )

Chicago, IL 60637
United States
7738342146 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/oystein.daljord/index.html

Oleg Urminsky (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Jose-Manuel Ureta

Marine Farm

Chile

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