Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Micro Evidence of a Survey at High-Frequency and of Distributions
21 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2019
Date Written: September 4, 2019
We shed new light on the anchoring of long-term euro area inflation expectations since the crisis by using micro evidence from a new survey at high (weekly) frequency. We find that long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored to the ECB's inflation aim, which has acted as a focal point. By contrast, we find no evidence that professional forecasts (reported by Consensus Economics) acted as focal points. But there are subtle signs of long-term inflation expectations not being perfectly well-anchored. Using measures based on the distribution of inflation expectations from a quarterly survey, namely uncertainty based on the full distribution, the probability of expected long-term inflation lying between 1.5% and 2.5%, and the effect of short-term on long-term deflation risk, we find that long-term euro area inflation expectations have remained well-anchored, and have become better-anchored between 2011 and 2018.
Keywords: inflation expectations
JEL Classification: E31, E58, F62
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation