On the Transmission Channels for the Resource Curse

25 Pages Posted: 6 Sep 2019

Date Written: July 5, 2019

Abstract

Recent literature shows that oil revenues may have a positive effect on long-run economic growth. However, there is no clear evidence for such an effect in the medium-run, suggesting the existence of a so-called resource-curse in the medium-run. Taking this as a starting point, we investigate all the transmission channels through which oil revenues can retard growth in the medium-run within a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) framework. Our results show that oil revenues have indeed a negative effect on the medium-run economic growth, which is transmitted through medium-term trends in oil prices and (poor) institutional quality.

Suggested Citation

Arin, Kerim Peren and Braunfels, Elias and Zenker, Christina, On the Transmission Channels for the Resource Curse (July 5, 2019). CAMA Working Paper No. 67/2019, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3448861 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3448861

Kerim Peren Arin (Contact Author)

Zayed University ( email )

P.O. Box 4783
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

Elias Braunfels

Oslo Economics ( email )

Kronprinsesse Märthas plass 1
Oslo, 0160
Norway

Christina Zenker

Zayed University ( email )

P.O. Box 4783
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

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