#Portichiusi: The Human Costs of Migrant Deterrence in the Mediterranean

DEMB Working Paper Series n.154

26 Pages Posted: 23 Sep 2019 Last revised: 29 Sep 2019

See all articles by Michele Cantarella

Michele Cantarella

Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE); European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Statistics

Date Written: September 5, 2019

Abstract

Using daily data on forced migration from the IOM and Frontex, I compare trends in flows and mortality across three major migration routes in the Mediterranean, analysing the effects of the introduction of rescue-deterrence policies in Italy. Controlling for exogenous shocks which affect push and pull factors in mobility, along with sea state conditions and route-day fixed effects, I find that the reduction in refugee migration flows in the Central Mediterranean has been modest, at best.

At the same time, these policies have generated a permanent increase in daily mortality rates in the Central Mediterranean, having grown by more than 4 deaths per day. Finally, I investigate whether variations in mortality are sufficient to offset migration flows. Increases in mortality rates, however, are only accompanied by a short-term negative displacement effect, as migration attempts are delayed by increases in absolute mortality, rather than being prevented.

Keywords: costs of migration, forced migration, EU refugee crisis, deterrence policies

JEL Classification: D81, F22, J15, J61, J68

Suggested Citation

Cantarella, Michele, #Portichiusi: The Human Costs of Migrant Deterrence in the Mediterranean (September 5, 2019). DEMB Working Paper Series n.154, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3449172 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3449172

Michele Cantarella (Contact Author)

Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) ( email )

Largo Marco Biagi 10
Modena, Modena 42121
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/michelecantarella1992/

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Statistics ( email )

Taunustor 2
60311 Frankfurt am Main
United States

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