#Portichiusi: The Human Costs of Migrant Deterrence in the Mediterranean
DEMB Working Paper Series n.154
26 Pages Posted: 23 Sep 2019 Last revised: 29 Sep 2019
Date Written: September 5, 2019
Using daily data on forced migration from the IOM and Frontex, I compare trends in flows and mortality across three major migration routes in the Mediterranean, analysing the effects of the introduction of rescue-deterrence policies in Italy. Controlling for exogenous shocks which affect push and pull factors in mobility, along with sea state conditions and route-day fixed effects, I find that the reduction in refugee migration flows in the Central Mediterranean has been modest, at best.
At the same time, these policies have generated a permanent increase in daily mortality rates in the Central Mediterranean, having grown by more than 4 deaths per day. Finally, I investigate whether variations in mortality are sufficient to offset migration flows. Increases in mortality rates, however, are only accompanied by a short-term negative displacement effect, as migration attempts are delayed by increases in absolute mortality, rather than being prevented.
Keywords: costs of migration, forced migration, EU refugee crisis, deterrence policies
JEL Classification: D81, F22, J15, J61, J68
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation