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Projected Changes in Mammalian Habitat Under Contrasting Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios

23 Pages Posted: 13 Sep 2019 Sneak Peek Status: Under Review

See all articles by Daniele Baisero

Daniele Baisero

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program

Piero Visconti

University College London - Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research

Michela Pacifici

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program

Marta Cimatti

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program

Carlo Rondinini

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program

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Abstract

Anthropogenic pressures on the environment are driving a global decline of biodiversity, and global change is projected to drive further decline. We used the InSiGHTS framework to model the impacts of climate change and land cover change on future habitat availability for 2827 terrestrial mammals at 15 arc minutes resolution, under five contrasting global change scenarios based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP): SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP6.0, SSP4-RCP6.0, SSP5-RCP8.5. Global habitat availability for mammals declined in all five scenario combinations from 2015 to 2050, and median declines ranged from 5% under SSP1-RCP2.6 to 16% under SSP5-RCP8.5. Africa (with median declines up to 25% under SSP5-RCP8.5), South America and Oceania were the most impacted regions. Afrosoricida (southern African golden moles and Madagascan tenrecs), Primates, Dasyuromorphia (Australian carnivorous marsupials), Notoryctemorphia (Australian marsupial moles), and Didelphimorphia (South American opossums) were amongst the taxa that lost more habitat under all scenarios. The preservation of mammalian habitat under global change will require a mix of actions at different scales, including shifting towards sustainability globally, addressing land-use change in sub-Saharan Africa, and helping endemic mammals track climate change in Oceania and South America.

Keywords: climate change, InSiGHTS, land use change, Land Use Harmonization, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), socio-economic development, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), species richness

Suggested Citation

Baisero, Daniele and Visconti, Piero and Pacifici, Michela and Cimatti, Marta and Rondinini, Carlo, Projected Changes in Mammalian Habitat Under Contrasting Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios (September 10, 2019). ONE-EARTH-D-19-00127. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3451453 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3451453
This is a paper under consideration at Cell Press and has not been peer-reviewed.

Daniele Baisero

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program ( email )

Italy

Piero Visconti

University College London - Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research ( email )

United Kingdom

Michela Pacifici

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program ( email )

Italy

Marta Cimatti

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program ( email )

Italy

Carlo Rondinini (Contact Author)

Sapienza University of Rome - Global Mammal Assessment Program ( email )

Italy

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