The Impact of Terrorism on European Tourism

33 Pages Posted: 24 Sep 2019

See all articles by Shaen Corbet

Shaen Corbet

Dublin City University ; University of Waikato - Management School

John F. O'Connell

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Marina Efthymiou

Dublin City University

Cathal Guiomard

DCU Business School, Dublin, Ireland

Brian M. Lucey

Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin; Abu Dhabi University - College of Business Administration; Shanghai Lixin Univeristy of Accounting and Finance

Date Written: September 15, 2019

Abstract

This paper estimates the influence of terrorist attacks on European tourism through the short-term post-hoc response of the airline industry and passengers. We use a seasonally-adjusted ARMA-GARCH methodology on unique datasets that examine changes in tourism as measured by ASKs, seats filled and changes in both fares and revenues. Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions; however, this response varies substantially based on the flight origin and ticket-type purchased. We found that business travel slows substantially due to duty of care legislation for corporate transport. While we found evidence indicating substantial airline fare reductions, in the majority of investigated cases this response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand and flows across varying ticket types.

Keywords: terrorism; European aviation industry; tourism flows; ARMA-GARCH

Suggested Citation

Corbet, Shaen and O'Connell, John F. and Efthymiou, Marina and Guiomard, Cathal and Lucey, Brian M., The Impact of Terrorism on European Tourism (September 15, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3454220 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3454220

Shaen Corbet (Contact Author)

Dublin City University ( email )

Dublin 9
Ireland

University of Waikato - Management School ( email )

Hamilton
New Zealand

John F. O'Connell

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Marina Efthymiou

Dublin City University ( email )

Ireland 9
Dublin 9, leinster 9
Ireland

Cathal Guiomard

DCU Business School, Dublin, Ireland ( email )

Dublin 9
Ireland

Brian M. Lucey

Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin ( email )

The Sutherland Centre, Level 6, Arts Building
Dublin 2
Ireland
+353 1 608 1552 (Phone)
+353 1 679 9503 (Fax)

Abu Dhabi University - College of Business Administration ( email )

PO Box 59911
Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi 59911
United Arab Emirates

Shanghai Lixin Univeristy of Accounting and Finance ( email )

Shanghai
China

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