Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector

51 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2003

See all articles by Kajal Lahiri

Kajal Lahiri

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics

H.O. Stekler

George Washington University - Department of Economics

w Yaw

University of Arkansas at Little Rock

Peg Young

U.S. Department of Transportation

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 8, 2002

Abstract

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indices for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual transportation output figures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The strong cyclical movements in the transportation output appear to be more synchronized with the growth slowdowns rather than full-fledged recessions of the U.S. economy. The index has led the peaks and troughs of the NBER defined growth cycles with an average lead-time of 5 months at peaks and 7 months at troughs with no false signals.

Keywords: Transportation Sector, Freight and Passenger Movements, Growth Cycles, Business Cycles, Phase Average Trend, HP Filter, U.S. Economy

JEL Classification: E3, L9, C43, C53

Suggested Citation

Lahiri, Kajal and Stekler, H.O. and Yaw, w and Young, Peg, Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector (October 8, 2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=345580 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.345580

Kajal Lahiri (Contact Author)

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
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HOME PAGE: http://www.albany.edu/~klahiri

H.O. Stekler

George Washington University - Department of Economics ( email )

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202-994-6147 (Fax)

W Yaw

University of Arkansas at Little Rock

Institute for Economic Advancement
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Little Rock, AR 72204-1099
United States
(501)569-8453 (Phone)

Peg Young

U.S. Department of Transportation ( email )

Bureau of Transportation Statistics
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Washington, DC 20590
United States
(202) 366-2483 (Phone)

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