Loan-to-Value Limits and House Prices

Abstract

This study evaluates the effect of loan-to-value (LTV) limits on house prices. The identification strategy exploits variation in LTV limits induced by Hong Kong Monetary Authorities’ decision to introduce differentiated LTV limits anchored on the value of the property, which allows us to observe the counterfactual house price development. We estimate that a one-percentage-point decrease in LTV limits reduces the house price growth by 0.8 percentage points. Overall, our results document that macro prudential policies, which regulate access to financing, are an effective policy tool to control house price growth.

Keywords: macro-prudential policy, loan-to-value limits, LTV, house price growth

JEL Classification: E44, E58, G21, G28