An Introduction to The Post-Natural Disasters People Losses and Damage Simulator (Ḧ-Simulator): Theoretical Framework

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new applicable tool to evaluate any post-natural disaster and its impact on people losses and damage, the new applicable tool is entitled “the post-natural disaster people losses and damage simulator (Ḧ-Simulator).” Subsequently, the Ḧ-Simulator works under the application of ten indicators such as (i) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage ratio (ḦNH(i)-Ratio); (ii) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage ratio (Ḧt-Ratio); (iii) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage balance (ḦNH(i)-Balance); (iv) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage balance (Ḧt-Balance); (v) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage marginal rate (ḦNH(i)-Marginal Rate); (vi) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage marginal rate (Ḧt-Marginal Rate); (vii) the impact of different post-natural disasters on losses and damage critical point (ḦNH(i)-Critical Point); (viii) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage critical point (Ḧt-Critical Point); (ix) the impact of different post-natural disasters on losses and damage surface (ḦNH(i)-Surface); (x) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage surface (Ḧt-Surface). However, the measurement of the ḦNH(i)-Ratio and Ḧt-Ratio, in turn, is based on simultaneously evaluating nine sub-variables (svj), where each sub-variable is represented by “j” that is a positive integer number, each sub-variable (svj) follow this by: (i) the number of death people by Km2 (sv1); (ii) the total number of missing people by Km2 (sv2); (iii) the total number of trapped people by Km2 (sv3); (iv) the total number of minor injured people by Km2 (sv4); (v) the total number of critical injured people by Km2 (sv5); (vi) the total number of infected people by diseases or epidemics by Km2 (sv6); (vii) the total number of people affected by water and air pollution by Km2 (sv7); (viii) the capability of food and water reserves for all people by Km2 (sv8); (ix) the total number of patients that each hospital is capable to attend by Km2 (sv9). The main objective of the Ḧ-Simulator is to evaluate the people losses and damage directly from a specific natural hazard or a large number of possible natural hazards. Therefore, these natural hazards analyzed in the Ḧ-Simulator is followed by earthquake (NH1), tsunami (NH2), floods (NH3), volcano eruption (NH4), typhoon (NH5), fire pollution (NH6), snow avalanches (NH7), landslide (NH8), blizzards (NH9), cyclonic storms (NH10), Tornadoes (NH11), droughts (NH12), hailstorms (NH13), sandstorm (NH14), and hurricane (NH15) respectively. Finally, the Ḧ-Simulator offers a Microsoft excel worksheet to input, storage, classified, calculate, and visualize the people losses and damage by Km2 from each type of natural hazards or all natural hazards together.

Keywords: post-natural disasters, natural hazards, evaluation, simulation, policy modeling, natural disaster

JEL Classification: Q54, O40