Keynes Demonstrated in Chapter 15 of the A Treatise on Probability That His Non Numerical Probabilities Are Identical to Boole’s Constituent Probabilities: It Is Mathematically Impossible for Keynes’s Non Numerical Probabilities to Be Ordinal Probabilities

18 Pages Posted: 2 Oct 2019

See all articles by Michael Emmett Brady

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills

Date Written: September 22, 2019

Abstract

The claim that Keynes’s non numerical probabilities are ordinal probabilities was shown to be mathematically impossible by Keynes in chapter 15 of the A Treatise on Probability on pp.162-163 and in chapter 17 on pp.186-194.

Keynes’s non numerical probabilities are identical to Boole’s constituent probabilities. Keynes improved on Boole’s technique and was able to solve Boolean problems much quicker than it took Boole to solve the problems. Part II of the A Treatise on Probability is nearly identical to the analysis provided in his two Cambridge University Fellowships in 1907 and 1908.


Keywords: Keynes nonnumerical probabilities, Boole's constituent probabilities, interval valued probability, upper and lower bounds

JEL Classification: B10, B12, B14, B16, B20, B22

Suggested Citation

Brady, Michael Emmett, Keynes Demonstrated in Chapter 15 of the A Treatise on Probability That His Non Numerical Probabilities Are Identical to Boole’s Constituent Probabilities: It Is Mathematically Impossible for Keynes’s Non Numerical Probabilities to Be Ordinal Probabilities (September 22, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3457973 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3457973

Michael Emmett Brady (Contact Author)

California State University, Dominguez Hills ( email )

1000 E. Victoria Street, Carson, CA
Carson, CA 90747
United States

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