Isotonic Regression Discontinuity Designs
52 Pages Posted: 2 Oct 2019 Last revised: 18 Mar 2021
Date Written: August 15, 2019
This paper studies the estimation and inference for the isotonic regression at the boundary point, an object that is particularly interesting and required in the analysis of monotone regression discontinuity designs. We show that the isotonic regression is inconsistent in this setting and derive the asymptotic distributions of boundary corrected estimators. Interestingly, the boundary corrected estimators can be bootstrapped without subsampling or additional nonparametric smoothing which is not the case for the interior point. The Monte Carlo experiments indicate that shape restrictions can improve dramatically the finite-sample performance of unrestricted estimators. Lastly, we apply the isotonic regression discontinuity designs to estimate the causal effect of incumbency in the U.S. House elections.
Keywords: regression discontinuity designs, shape constraints, monotonicity, isotonic regression, boundary point, wild bootstrap
JEL Classification: C14, C31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation