Carbon Sequestration and N- and M-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curves: Evidence from International Land Use Change

41 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2019 Last revised: 21 Aug 2020

See all articles by Timothy Terrell

Timothy Terrell

Wofford College; Mises Institute

Date Written: February 8, 2020

Abstract

Economic growth can affect land use change to release or sequester carbon, intensifying or mitigating the impact of other carbon emissions, and the functional form of that relationship is important to crafting policy responses. Data on land use and land cover change (LULCC) for 14 countries reveal an N- or M-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for LULCC carbon flux to/from the atmosphere in some nations, while others display very different relationships. Most nations studied show some variation of the inverted-U EKC. All but one nation display initial turning points ranging from $2,000 to $9,000 per capita GDP (2011 dollars), and half are now net negative carbon emitters with respect to LULCC. For the US, regression analysis of the LULCC EKC indicates a roughly M-shaped quartic EKC function, with local maxima at about $5,000 and $45,000 and a local minimum at about $30,000. Where N-shaped EKCs are observed, the carbon sequestration from increasing forest regrowth is transient, and may be followed by a phase in which rising aggregate emissions dominate slowing sequestration in maturing forests. An M-shaped EKC indicates a third turning point, representing a return to increased net carbon absorption.

Keywords: Carbon, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Forestry, Land Use

JEL Classification: Q23, Q24, Q54, Q56

Suggested Citation

Terrell, Timothy, Carbon Sequestration and N- and M-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curves: Evidence from International Land Use Change (February 8, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3461033 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3461033

Timothy Terrell (Contact Author)

Wofford College ( email )

429 N. Church St.
Spartanburg, SC 29303-3663
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.wofford.edu

Mises Institute ( email )

Auburn, AL
United States

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