反思中国的金融抑制与隐性担保 (Rethink the Financial Repression and Implicit Guarantee in China)

103 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2019

See all articles by Ping An

Ping An

Tsinghua University - PBC School of Finance

Date Written: March 20, 2019

Abstract

Chinese Abstract: 本文构建了一个银行自由竞争,居民受到“高储蓄率抑制”,国有企业受到“经营波动抑制”的模型,可以解释当前中国许多金融抑制现象和金融市场均衡。基于模型本文提出,当前中国“金融抑制”现象的根源不在于金融部门,而在于居民和国有企业受到抑制。在这种环境下,隐性担保并非影响金融稳定的核心风险:一方面,中国金融市场中的隐性担保,不是市场非理性行为结果,而是一个客观制度环境。所有市场参与者都在此环境下做出优化决策,从而隐性担保因素已在资产定价过程中被包含,不存在定价偏误。另一方面,居民和国有企业面临的抑制有助于缓解隐性担保的潜在风险。而且数值模拟显示,提高银行间市场流动性,同时适当降低国有企业抑制,可以在不打破隐性担保的情况下提升中国金融市场效率。如果强制打破隐性担保,反而会产生剧烈的市场动荡和有悖社会公平的收入分配效应。

English Abstract: I construct a model where the banks compete freely, while the household faces “high saving repression”, the state owned enterprise (SOE) faces “operation fluctuate repression”. The model can explain nearly all financial repression phenomena and financial market equilibria in China after the 2008 global financial crisis. By the model, I propose that the root of “financial repression phenomena” in China, not comes from the financial sector, but comes from the household and SOE sectors. Against this background, the implicit guarantee is not the main risk of the financial instability. On one hand, the implicit guarantee is an exogenous institutional environment rather than an endogenous irrational outcome of the market, hence it was already contained in the asset prices; on the other hand, the repressions of the household and SOE alleviate the risk of the implicit guarantee. Furthermore, the simulation shows that, improve the liquidity in the inter-bank market and moderately relax the SOE repression can raise efficiency of the financial market without break the implicit guarantee. If the regulator compels the bank to break the implicit guarantee will cause the financial market turmoil and the redistribution effect that violates social fairness.

Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.

Keywords: 金融抑制,隐性担保,金融监管,金融风险

JEL Classification: G11; G12; G21; O16

Suggested Citation

An, Ping, 反思中国的金融抑制与隐性担保 (Rethink the Financial Repression and Implicit Guarantee in China) (March 20, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3462311 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3462311

Ping An (Contact Author)

Tsinghua University - PBC School of Finance ( email )

No. 43, Chengdu Road
Haidian District
Beijing 100083
China

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