Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Identification with Twitter
64 Pages Posted: 7 Oct 2019 Last revised: 22 Sep 2021
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Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Identification with Twitter
Date Written: September 2019
Abstract
We use a high-frequency approach to analyze the effects of President Trump's tweets that criticize the Federal Reserve on financial markets. Identification exploits a short time window around the precise timestamp for each tweet. The average effect on the expected fed funds rate is negative and statistically significant, with the magnitude growing by horizon. The tweets also lead to an increase in the stock market, breakeven inflation, and spreads linked to the risk of financial instability. VAR evidence shows that the tweets had an important impact on actual monetary policy, the stock market, bond premia, and the macroeconomy.
Keywords: central bank independence, fed funds target, High-Frequency Identification, monetary policy, Twitter
JEL Classification: D72, E40, E50
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation