Strategic Interdependence in Political Movements and Countermovements

62 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2019

See all articles by Anselm Hager

Anselm Hager

University of Oxford

Lukas Hensel

University of Oxford

Johannes Hermle

University of Bonn

Christopher Roth

University of Warwick, Faculty of Social Studies, Department of Economics, Students

Date Written: 2019

Abstract

We study participation in right-wing rallies and counterrallies in Germany to examine strategic interactions in political movements. In the leadup to two right-wing rallies, we exogenously shift potential participants' beliefs about the turnout at the right-wing rally and left-wing counterrally, and then measure activists' intentions to protest. For right-wing activists, own participation and participation of peers exhibit strategic substitutability. For left-wing activists, own participation and participation of peers are strategic complements. Both groups do not, however, react to changes in competitor effort. Our evidence highlights substantial heterogeneity in the nature of strategic interactions in political movements.

Keywords: political rallies, field experiment, strategic behavior, beliefs

JEL Classification: D740, D800, P000

Suggested Citation

Hager, Anselm and Hensel, Lukas and Hermle, Johannes and Roth, Christopher, Strategic Interdependence in Political Movements and Countermovements (2019). CESifo Working Paper No. 7790, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3468019 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3468019

Anselm Hager (Contact Author)

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Lukas Hensel

University of Oxford ( email )

South Parks Road
Oxford, OX1 3QZ
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/view/lukashenseleconomics

Johannes Hermle

University of Bonn ( email )

Regina-Pacis-Weg 3
Postfach 2220
Bonn, D-53012
Germany

Christopher Roth

University of Warwick, Faculty of Social Studies, Department of Economics, Students ( email )

Coventry, CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

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