Voting after a Major Flood: Is there a Link between Democratic Experience and Retrospective Voting?

51 Pages Posted: 24 Oct 2019

See all articles by Michael Neugart

Michael Neugart

Technische Universität Darmstadt

Johannes Rode

Technische Universität Darmstadt

Date Written: October 15, 2019

Abstract

We analyze whether voters with less democratic experience are more likely to vote for an incumbent party which launched a disaster relief program. For identification, we exploit the disastrous 2013 flood in Germany, and the separation of Germany into a democratic West and a non-democratic East after World War II. Our analysis reveals a two percentage points increase for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West in 2013. We provide further suggestive evidence that voters with less democratic experience are easier prey to pre-election policies of incumbents.

Keywords: retrospective voting, natural disaster, democratic experience, relief program

JEL Classification: D72, D78, H84, R10

Suggested Citation

Neugart, Michael and Rode, Johannes, Voting after a Major Flood: Is there a Link between Democratic Experience and Retrospective Voting? (October 15, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3470110 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3470110

Michael Neugart

Technische Universität Darmstadt ( email )

Hochschulstraße 1
Darmstadt, 64289
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.vwl3.wi.tu-darmstadt.de/fachgebiete_10/startseite_6/index.en.jsp

Johannes Rode (Contact Author)

Technische Universität Darmstadt ( email )

Chair of International Economics
Hochschulstraße 1
Darmstadt, 64289
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.vwl2.wi.tu-darmstadt.de/rode

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