Voting after a Major Flood: Is there a Link between Democratic Experience and Retrospective Voting?

Abstract

We analyze whether voters with less democratic experience are more likely to vote for an incumbent party which launched a disaster relief program. For identification, we exploit the disastrous 2013 flood in Germany, and the separation of Germany into a democratic West and a non-democratic East after World War II. Our analysis reveals a two percentage points increase for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West in 2013. We provide further suggestive evidence that voters with less democratic experience are easier prey to pre-election policies of incumbents.

Keywords: retrospective voting, natural disaster, democratic experience, relief program

JEL Classification: D72, D78, H84, R10