Energy- and Multi-Sector Modelling of Climate Change Mitigation in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs

69 Pages Posted: 25 Nov 2019

See all articles by Dom White

Dom White

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Niven Winchester

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Martin Atkins

affiliation not provided to SSRN

John Ballingall

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Simon Coates

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ferran de Miguel Mercader

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Suzie Greenhalgh

Landcare Research

Andrew Kerr

University of Cape Town (UCT)

Suzi Kerr

Environmental Defense Fund

Jonathan Leaver

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Catherine Leining

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Juan F. Monge

Miguel Hernandez University

James Neale

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Andrew Philpott

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Vincent Smart

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Adolf Stroombergen

Infometrics

Kiti Suomalainen

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: November 29, 2018

Abstract

As New Zealand charts its course toward a low-emissions economy, the quality of energy-sector and multi-sector modelling is becoming increasingly important. This paper outlines why models are useful for answering complex questions, provides a stocktake of energy-sector and multi-sector models used for climate change mitigation modelling in New Zealand, and makes suggestions for improving future modelling work. While New Zealand is fortunate to have a range of different modelling tools, these have historically been used in a sporadic and ad hoc way, and underlying datasets are deficient in some areas. As the foundation for a more strategic development of New Zealand’s modelling capability, this paper profiles some of the energy-sector and multi-sector models and datasets currently applied in New Zealand. New Zealand’s modelling capability could be strengthened by collecting and sharing data more effectively; building understanding of underlying relationships informed by primary research; creating more collaborative and transparent processes for applying common datasets; increasing international collaboration; and conducting more integrated modelling across environmental issues. These improvements will require strategic policies and processes for refining model development; providing increased, predictable and sustained funding for modelling activities, underlying data collection and primary research; and strengthening networks across modellers inside and outside of government. Many of the suggested improvements could be realised by creating an integrated framework for climate change mitigation modelling in New Zealand. This framework would bring together a suite of models and a network of researchers to assess climate change mitigation policies regularly. Core elements of the framework would include a central repository of data, input assumptions and scenarios, and a “dashboard” that synthesises results from different models to allow decision-makers to understand and apply the insights from the models more easily.

Keywords: Applied general equilibrium, Electricity, Greenhouse gases, Policy analysis, Transportation

JEL Classification: C31, D58, Q4, Q54

Suggested Citation

White, Dominic and Winchester, Niven and Atkins, Martin and Ballingall, John and Coates, Simon and de Miguel Mercader, Ferran and Greenhalgh, Suzie and Kerr, Andrew and Kerr, Suzi and Leaver, Jonathan and Leining, Catherine and Monge, Juan F. and Neale, James and Philpott, Andrew and Smart, Vincent and Stroombergen, Adolf and Suomalainen, Kiti, Energy- and Multi-Sector Modelling of Climate Change Mitigation in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs (November 29, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3477047 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3477047

Dominic White

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

Niven Winchester (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change ( email )

E19-429
77 Massachusetts Ave
Cambridge, MA 02139
United States

Martin Atkins

affiliation not provided to SSRN

John Ballingall

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Simon Coates

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ferran De Miguel Mercader

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Suzie Greenhalgh

Landcare Research

Private Bag 92170 Auckland Mail Centre
Aukland, 1142
New Zealand

Andrew Kerr

University of Cape Town (UCT) ( email )

Private Bag X3
Rondebosch, Western Cape 7701
South Africa

Suzi Kerr

Environmental Defense Fund ( email )

1875 Connecticut ave
257 Park Avenue South
Washington, DC 20009
United States

Jonathan Leaver

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Catherine Leining

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

Juan F. Monge

Miguel Hernandez University ( email )

Elche Campus, La Galia Building
Avda. del Ferrocarril, s/n
03202 Elche
United States

James Neale

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Andrew Philpott

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Vincent Smart

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Adolf Stroombergen

Infometrics ( email )

PO Box 10068
Wellington
New Zealand

Kiti Suomalainen

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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