Land-Use Modelling in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs

70 Pages Posted: 25 Nov 2019

See all articles by Jo Hendy

Jo Hendy

Interim Climate Change Commission

Anne-Gaelle Ausseil

Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research

Isaac Bain

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Élodie Blanc

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

David Fleming

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Joel Gibbs

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alistair Hall

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alexander Herzig

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Patrick Kavanagh

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Suzi Kerr

Environmental Defense Fund

Catherine Leining

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Laetitia Leroy

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Edmund Lou

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Juan F. Monge

Miguel Hernandez University

Andy Reisinger

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jimmy Risk

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Tarek Soliman

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Adolf Stroombergen

Infometrics

Levente Timar

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust; GNS Science

Tony van der Weerden

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Dom White

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Christian Zammit

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: November 29, 2018

Abstract

New Zealand faces the challenge of using our land in ways that are not only resilient to future pressures and sustain our rural communities but also enhance our natural environment. For the public and private sectors to make robust land-use decisions under uncertainty, high-quality modelling tools and data are essential. The drivers of land-use decisions are complex and models provide a structured methodology for investigating these. While New Zealand is fortunate to have a range of different modelling tools, these have historically been used in a sporadic and ad hoc way, and underlying datasets are deficient in some areas. As the foundation for more strategic development of New Zealand’s modelling capability, this paper profiles the main land-sector and farm- and production-related models and datasets currently applied in New Zealand. It also explores priority policy areas where modelling is needed, such as achieving emission reduction targets; managing freshwater, biodiversity and soil quality; and understanding the distributional impacts of policy options as well as climate change. New Zealand’s modelling capability could be strengthened by collecting and sharing land-use data more effectively; building understanding of underlying relationships informed by primary research; creating more collaborative and transparent processes for applying common datasets, scenarios and assumptions, and conducting peer review; and conducting more integrated modelling across environmental issues. These improvements will require strategic policies and processes for refining model development, providing increased, predictable and sustained funding for modelling activity and underlying data collection and primary research, and strengthening networks across modellers inside and outside of government.

Keywords: Land-use, modelling, data management, Policy analysis

JEL Classification: C31, D58, Q4, Q54

Suggested Citation

Hendy, Joanna and Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle and Bain, Isaac and Blanc, Élodie and Fleming, David and Gibbs, Joel and Hall, Alistair and Herzig, Alexander and Kavanagh, Patrick and Kerr, Suzi and Leining, Catherine and Leroy, Laetitia and Lou, Edmund and Monge, Juan F. and Reisinger, Andy and Risk, Jimmy and Soliman, Tarek and Stroombergen, Adolf and Timar, Levente and van der Weerden, Tony and White, Dominic and Zammit, Christian, Land-Use Modelling in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs (November 29, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3477050 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3477050

Joanna Hendy (Contact Author)

Interim Climate Change Commission ( email )

New Zealand

Anne-Gaelle Ausseil

Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research ( email )

New Zealand

Isaac Bain

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Élodie Blanc

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

David Fleming

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

Joel Gibbs

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alistair Hall

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alexander Herzig

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Patrick Kavanagh

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Suzi Kerr

Environmental Defense Fund ( email )

1875 Connecticut ave
257 Park Avenue South
Washington, DC 20009
United States

Catherine Leining

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

Laetitia Leroy

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Edmund Lou

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

Juan F. Monge

Miguel Hernandez University ( email )

Elche Campus, La Galia Building
Avda. del Ferrocarril, s/n
03202 Elche
United States

Andy Reisinger

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jimmy Risk

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Tarek Soliman

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Adolf Stroombergen

Infometrics ( email )

PO Box 10068
Wellington
New Zealand

Levente Timar

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

GNS Science ( email )

1 Fairway Dr
Avalon
Lower Hutt
New Zealand

Tony Van der Weerden

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Dominic White

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

Christian Zammit

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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