Sea Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields
60 Pages Posted: 11 Nov 2019 Last revised: 10 Nov 2022
Date Written: November 9, 2022
Municipal bond markets begin pricing sea level rise (SLR) exposure risk in 2013, coinciding with upward revisions to worst-case SLR projections and accompanying uncertainty around these projections. The effect is larger for long-maturity bonds and is not solely driven by near-term flood risk. We use a structural model of credit risk to quantify the implied economic impact and distinguish the effects of underlying asset values and uncertainty. The SLR exposure premium exhibits a different trend from house prices and is unaffected by house price controls. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of climate uncertainty in driving municipal bond prices.
Keywords: climate change, sea level rise, asset prices, municipal bonds, credit risk
JEL Classification: G1, G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation