19 Pages Posted: 4 Nov 2002
Date Written: November 2002
Samuelson (1998) offered the dictum that the stock market is "micro efficient" but "macro inefficient." That is, the efficient markets hypothesis works much better for individual stocks than it does for the aggregate stock market. In this paper, we present one simple test, based both on regressions and on a simple scatter diagram that vividly illustrates that there is some truth to Samuelson's dictum. The data comprise all U.S. firms on the CRSP tape that have survived since 1926.
Keywords: Market Efficiency, Random Walk, Dividend Yield, Dividend Price Ratio, Present Value, Excess Volatility, Gordon Model
JEL Classification: G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Jung, Jeeman and Shiller, Robert J., One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market (November 2002). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1386; Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-39. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=348180
By Owen Lamont