Do Analysts Chase Prices When Prices Have No Information?

63 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2019

See all articles by Austin Starkweather

Austin Starkweather

University of South Carolina Moore School of Business

Date Written: November 6, 2019

Abstract

In a recent survey of analysts, 96% claim that returns are not very useful as earnings forecast model inputs. I find, though, that analysts actually do incorporate returns into their earnings forecasts, even if those returns have no underlying earnings information. This leads to forecast error, which is worse among inexperienced analysts and those with reduced attention. Finally, I show that the market is unable to anticipate this error, leading to mispricing that is not resolved until the earnings announcement date. The literature has so far been unable to explore these issues causally. However, I am able to do so by developing a novel identification strategy that isolates the non-earnings component of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and separates out concurrent information using intraday and instrumented returns.

Keywords: analyst forecasts, busy analysts, experienced analysts, fatigued analysts, market inefficiency

JEL Classification: G3, G17, M4, M41

Suggested Citation

Starkweather, Austin, Do Analysts Chase Prices When Prices Have No Information? (November 6, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3481984 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3481984

Austin Starkweather (Contact Author)

University of South Carolina Moore School of Business ( email )

1014 Greene St
Columbia, SC 29208
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.astarkweather.com

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