Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

67 Pages Posted: 8 Nov 2019

See all articles by Samya Beidas-Strom

Samya Beidas-Strom

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Marco Lorusso

Heriot-Watt University

Date Written: October 2019

Abstract

We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Keywords: External sector, Fiscal sector, Supply and demand, Oil consumption, Real effective exchange rates, DSGE model, Economic diversi?cation, Shocks and commodity exporters, Bayesian estimation, Fiscal policy, In?ation targeting, Managed ?oat, Oil intensity., WP, oil demand, medium-term, non-oil, oil exporter, structural reform

JEL Classification: C11, E31, E62, F41, Q43, E43, E01, O24, K34, F1, H

Suggested Citation

Beidas-Strom, Samya and Lorusso, Marco, Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK (October 2019). IMF Working Paper No. 19/214, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3482298

Samya Beidas-Strom (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Marco Lorusso

Heriot-Watt University ( email )

Riccarton
Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland EH14 1AS
United Kingdom

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
9
Abstract Views
122
PlumX Metrics