The Fu (2009) Positive Relation between Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Returns Is Due to Look-Ahead Bias
Critical Finance Review, forthcoming
60 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2019 Last revised: 22 Jul 2020
Date Written: July 10, 2020
Expected idiosyncratic volatility and its positive relation to expected returns of Fu (2009) can be closely replicated, but only when we include information up to time t to estimate the idiosyncratic volatility at time t. Since this involves look-ahead bias, we re-estimate expected idiosyncratic volatility using information only up to time t - 1. We find no significant relation between idiosyncratic volatility and returns, and our results are robust to the sample periods extended to before and after that of Fu (2009). Our findings are consistent with the fact that idiosyncratic risk is not priced.
Keywords: Idiosyncratic Volatility, look-ahed bias
JEL Classification: G10, G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation