Dollar Exchange Rate as a Credit Supply Factor – Evidence from Firm-Level Exports

Abstract

The dollar exchange rate affects real outcomes not only through competitiveness, but also through fluctuations in credit supply. Using detailed export data at the firm-level, we find that the dollar exchange rate affects exports and, conditional on the firms' and banks' financing structure, operates in the opposite direction to the competitiveness channel. Other things equal, firms that are more reliant on banks with higher dollar funding suffer a larger negative effect on exports following an appreciation of the dollar. The effect is particularly pronounced for firms with long production chains. We identify a financial channel of the dollar exchange rate operating through bank credit supply to the exporting firm.

Keywords: global factors, risk taking channel, non-core bank funding, working capital, global value chains

JEL Classification: F34, F42