SOFR and €STR Discounting: Forward Convexity from Discount-Rate Transition

5 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2019

Date Written: November 11, 2019

Abstract

Due the the upcoming change in price alignment interest that is anticipated for SOFR and €STR, a new definition of the "hybrid" risk-neutral measure is developed, which is based on continuous reinvestment at the price alignment interest rate. A corresponding T-forward measure is defined, which is consistent with the treatment of cashflow obligations including bond prices and terminal payouts. Values obtained under the "hybrid" measure remain unchanged when combined with explicit modeling of the compensation payout at the transition time, in addition to describing any MTM change for uncompensated positions. This new measure also allows continuous construction of the forward curve in a way that is convexity-free up to and beyond the discounting transition, whereas the original pricing measure will see a sudden impact on the forward curve at the transition point. Lastly the "hybrid" measure provides a framework to model the forward curve convexity for trades with collateral agreements that do not transition simultaneously across different netting sets.

Keywords: SOFR, ESTR, €STR, discounting, PAI, convexity, discount, forward, curve, CME, LCH

JEL Classification: G12, G13, E43

Suggested Citation

Rosen, Jonathan, SOFR and €STR Discounting: Forward Convexity from Discount-Rate Transition (November 11, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3485314 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3485314

Jonathan Rosen (Contact Author)

FINCAD Corporation ( email )

Central City, Suite 1750
13450 102nd Ave
Surrey, British Columbia V3T 5X3
Canada

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