The CESD Assessment on the 2019 State Budget Project

19 Pages Posted: 12 Dec 2019

See all articles by Dan Breban

Dan Breban

Centre for Economic and Social Development (CESD)

Elmir Mukhtarov

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jafar Jafarov

Centre for Economic and Social Development (CESD)

Date Written: November 10, 2018

Abstract

The current external macroeconomic conditions observed throughout the year of 2018, such as increasing rates by FED/ECB, exerts certain pressure on the economies of developing nations. Despite hovering well-over its predicted value for most of the year, the recent decline in the price of oil once again puts question marks for the future of the commodity. Considering all of the above mentioned facts in mind, dependence of 2019 state budget of Azerbaijan on oil, where 50.4% of revenues directly come from the oil sector further makes the country more vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. The largest hike is observed in the amount of revenues collected through the excise taxes while the biggest decline is in income taxes, reflecting the new amendments to the tax code. Expenditures of the state budget are going to be 7.3% higher in 2019, with the most significant boost observed in construction sector. This fact undermines the efficiency of the public funds, as the expenditures towards construction are more likely to become subject of mismanagement.

Keywords: Public Finance, State Budget, Fiscal Policy, Azerbaijan

JEL Classification: H6, H3, G2

Suggested Citation

Breban, Dan and Mukhtarov, Elmir and Jafarov, Jafar, The CESD Assessment on the 2019 State Budget Project (November 10, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3485612 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3485612

Dan Breban (Contact Author)

Centre for Economic and Social Development (CESD)

No. (27), Pyay Road, 6½ Mile
Hlaing Township
Yangon
Myanmar

Elmir Mukhtarov

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jafar Jafarov

Centre for Economic and Social Development (CESD)

No. (27), Pyay Road, 6½ Mile
Hlaing Township
Yangon
Myanmar

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