Timing of Predictions in Dynamic Cheap Talk: Experts vs. Quacks

Abstract

The paper studies a dynamic communication game in the presence of adverse selection and career concerns. A forecaster of privately known competence, who cares about his reputation, chooses the timing of the forecast regarding the outcome of some future event. We find that in all equilibria in a sufficiently general class earlier reports are more credible. Further, any report hurts the forecaster’s reputation in the short run, with later reports incurring larger penalties. The reputation of a silent forecaster, on the other hand, gradually improves over time.

Keywords: Career concerns, reputation, dynamic games, games of timing, strategic information transmission

JEL Classification: C73, D82, D83, D84