Democratization, Inequality, and Risk Premia

135 Pages Posted: 15 Jan 2020 Last revised: 22 Sep 2021

See all articles by Max Miller

Max Miller

University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School, Finance Department

Date Written: September 20, 2021

Abstract

Risk premia are significantly elevated during periods of democratization in a cross-country panel of equity data covering 85 countries over 200 years, despite little evidence of a negative effect on either realized or expected GDP and dividends. This result is explained in an asset pricing model in which wealthy asset market participants face higher taxes when democratizations succeed. Finally, using a shift in Catholic church doctrine in support of democracy, majority Catholic autocracies display significantly higher average excess returns relative to other countries in a difference-in-differences framework. These results shed light on how redistribution risk shapes asset prices.

Keywords: Risk Premia, Democratization, Inequality, Political Institutions, Catholic Church

JEL Classification: G10, G15, G18, N40, P16

Suggested Citation

Miller, Max, Democratization, Inequality, and Risk Premia (September 20, 2021). Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3488208 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3488208

Max Miller (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School, Finance Department ( email )

The Wharton School
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

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