Joint Extremes in Temperature and Mortality: A Bivariate POT Approach
24 Pages Posted: 5 Dec 2019
Date Written: November 19, 2019
This paper contributes to insurance risk management by modeling extreme climate risk and extreme mortality risk in an integrated manner via extreme value theory (EVT). We conduct an empirical study using monthly temperature and death data in the U.S., and nd that the joint extremes in cold weather and old-age death counts exhibit the strongest level of dependence. Based on the estimated bivariate generalized Pareto distribution, we quantify the extremal dependence between death counts and temperature indexes. Methodologically, we employ the cutting edge multivariate peaks over threshold (POT) approach, which is readily applicable to a wide range of topics in extreme risk management.
Keywords: Extreme Value Theory, Bivariate Pot, Climate Change, Actuaries Climate Index, Mortality Risk
JEL Classification: C32, G22, J11, Q54
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