Long-Run Changes in Radiative Forcing and Surface Temperature: The Effect of Human Activity over the Last Five Centuries

34 Pages Posted: 11 Dec 2019

See all articles by Theologos Dergiades

Theologos Dergiades

University of Macedonia - Department of International and European Studies

Robert Kaufmann

Boston University - Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Department of Geography and Environment

Theodore Panagiotidis

University of Macedonia - Department of Economics

Date Written: 2015

Abstract

We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change.

Keywords: global climate change; radiative forcing; surface temperature

JEL Classification: C12, Q51, Q54

Suggested Citation

Dergiades, Theologos and Kaufmann, Robert and Panagiotidis, Theodore, Long-Run Changes in Radiative Forcing and Surface Temperature: The Effect of Human Activity over the Last Five Centuries (2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3492732 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3492732

Theologos Dergiades

University of Macedonia - Department of International and European Studies ( email )

Egnatia str. 156
Thessaloniki, 54636
Greece

Robert Kaufmann

Boston University - Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Department of Geography and Environment ( email )

Boston University
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Theodore Panagiotidis (Contact Author)

University of Macedonia - Department of Economics ( email )

Thessaloniki, 54006
Greece

HOME PAGE: http://users.uom.gr/~tpanag/

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