The Impact of Economic Growth in Mortality Modelling for Selected OECD Countries

Journal of Forecasting, November 2019

DOI: 10.1002/for.2640

40 Pages Posted: 15 Dec 2019

See all articles by Lydia Dutton

Lydia Dutton

University of Liverpool

Athanasios A. Pantelous

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics

Malgorzata Seklecka

University of Liverpool - Institute of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics

Date Written: November 26, 2019

Abstract

The health of a population is affected by social, environmental, and economic factors. Pension providers and consultants, insurance companies, government agencies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how the economic growth will impact on the life expectancy of their population. Therefore, changes in death rates may occur due to climate and economic changes. In this study, we extend a previous study into excess deaths as a result of climate change to also provide a comprehensive investigation of the impact of economic changes using annual female and male data for 5 developed OECD countries. We find that there is strong negative relationship between mortality index, and climate and economic proxies. This model shows to provide better fitting and forecasting results both for females and males, and for all countries studied.

Keywords: Economic Change (GDP); Longevity; Climate Change (Temperature); Mortality Modelling; Forecasting

JEL Classification: C51; C52; C53; G22; G23; J11

Suggested Citation

Dutton, Lydia and Pantelous, Athanasios A. and Seklecka, Malgorzata, The Impact of Economic Growth in Mortality Modelling for Selected OECD Countries (November 26, 2019). Journal of Forecasting, November 2019, DOI: 10.1002/for.2640, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3493576

Lydia Dutton

University of Liverpool ( email )

Chatham Street
Liverpool, L69 7ZA
United Kingdom

Athanasios A. Pantelous (Contact Author)

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics ( email )

Wellington Road
Clayton, Victoria 3168
Australia

Malgorzata Seklecka

University of Liverpool - Institute of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics ( email )

Peach Street
Liverpool, L697ZL
United Kingdom

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