The Impact of Economic Growth in Mortality Modelling for Selected OECD Countries
Journal of Forecasting, Volume 39, Issue 3, pp. 533-550, April 2020 DOI: 10.1002/for.2640
40 Pages Posted: 15 Dec 2019 Last revised: 19 Dec 2020
Date Written: November 26, 2019
The health of a population is affected by social, environmental, and economic factors. Pension providers and consultants, insurance companies, government agencies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how the economic growth will impact on the life expectancy of their population. Therefore, changes in death rates may occur due to climate and economic changes. In this study, we extend a previous study into excess deaths as a result of climate change to also provide a comprehensive investigation of the impact of economic changes using annual female and male data for 5 developed OECD countries. We find that there is strong negative relationship between mortality index, and climate and economic proxies. This model shows to provide better fitting and forecasting results both for females and males, and for all countries studied.
Keywords: Economic Change (GDP); Longevity; Climate Change (Temperature); Mortality Modelling; Forecasting
JEL Classification: C51; C52; C53; G22; G23; J11
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