Predicción del fracaso empresarial: 50 años del modelo seminal de Altman. Un contraste de su efectividad actual en la realidad empresarial de las pymes de Galicia (Forecasting Business Failure: 50 Years of Altman’s Seminal Model. A Contrast of Its Current Effectiveness Within Galician SMEs)

24 Pages Posted: 13 Dec 2019

See all articles by Manuel Rodríguez - López

Manuel Rodríguez - López

University of Coruña - Finance and MIS Research Group (fysig)

Carlos Piñeiro-Sánchez

University of Coruña - Dept. of Financial Economics & Accountability. Financial Management & Information Systems Research Group (fysig)

Pablo de Llano-Monelos

University of Coruña - Faculty of Business and Economics

Date Written: October 22, 2018

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: Han transcurrido 50 años del modelo de E. Altman, la primera herramienta multivariable paramétrica para predecir quiebras. Este trabajo rememora esa efeméride, aplicando el modelo original de 1968 y su posterior reestimación de 1995, sobre una muestra de pymes gallegas en el período 1999 - 2009. Se verifican sus resultados con los modelos multivariante paramétricos diseñados específicamente para este tipo de empresas por el grupo de investigación fysig.

English Abstract: 50 years have passed since the model of E. Altman, the first multivariable parametric tool to predict bankruptcies. This work recalls that event, applying the original 1968 model and its subsequent re-estimation of 1995, on a sample of Galician SMEs in the period 1999 - 2009. Their results are verified with the multivariate parametric models designed specifically for this type of companies by the fysig research group.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: bankruptcy, financial distress

JEL Classification: G33

Suggested Citation

Rodríguez - López, Manuel and Piñeiro-Sánchez, Carlos and de Llano-Monelos, Pablo, Predicción del fracaso empresarial: 50 años del modelo seminal de Altman. Un contraste de su efectividad actual en la realidad empresarial de las pymes de Galicia (Forecasting Business Failure: 50 Years of Altman’s Seminal Model. A Contrast of Its Current Effectiveness Within Galician SMEs) (October 22, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3493746 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3493746

Manuel Rodríguez - López

University of Coruña - Finance and MIS Research Group (fysig) ( email )

Campus de Elviña
http://www.udc.es/grupos/fysig
A Coruña, A Coruña E15071
Spain

Carlos Piñeiro-Sánchez (Contact Author)

University of Coruña - Dept. of Financial Economics & Accountability. Financial Management & Information Systems Research Group (fysig) ( email )

Campus de Elviña
A Coruña, A Coruña E15071
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.udc.es/grupos/fysig/carlos

Pablo De Llano-Monelos

University of Coruña - Faculty of Business and Economics ( email )

Campus Elviña s/n
Coruña, Galicia 15071
Spain

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