The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA
13 Pages Posted: 2 Dec 2019
Date Written: October 22, 2019
In the USA a high relative price of housing is associated with log GDP growth over the following 5 years. It is possible to forecast the great recession using this pattern and a trend both estimated with 20th century data. The forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession.
Keywords: housing, bubble, medium term forecasting
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