The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA

13 Pages Posted: 2 Dec 2019

See all articles by Robert Waldmann

Robert Waldmann

Universita di Roma Tor Vergata; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: October 22, 2019

Abstract

In the USA a high relative price of housing is associated with log GDP growth over the following 5 years. It is possible to forecast the great recession using this pattern and a trend both estimated with 20th century data. The forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession.

Keywords: housing, bubble, medium term forecasting

Suggested Citation

Waldmann, Robert, The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA (October 22, 2019). CEIS Working Paper No. 475, November 2019. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3495585

Robert Waldmann (Contact Author)

Universita di Roma Tor Vergata ( email )

Piazzale Aldo Moro 5
Roma, Rome 00185
Italy

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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