The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus
26 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2019
Date Written: November 2019
China's current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expansionary credit and fiscal policies contributed, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by economic rebalancing from investment to consumption, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) towards equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China's faster growth compared with trading partners. Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening up to ensure excessive surpluses do not return, and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China's surplus has lowered global imbalances, but with different impact across countries. The analysis is based on data as of July 2019.
Keywords: Accounting, Aging, Assets, Balance of trade, Bank deposits, Bilateral trade, Bonds, Capital, Capital account, Capital flows, Capital inflows, Capital outflows, Centrally planned economies, Commodities, Commodity markets, Commodity prices, Comparative advantage, Consumer goods, Consumption, Credit, Credit demand, Credit policy, Currencies, Current account, Current account balances, Current account deficits, Current account surpluses, Debt, Demand, Development, Domestic credit, Domestic savings, Economic sectors, Economies, Equilibrium (Economics), European Union, Exchange rate appreciation, Exchange rate depreciation, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Export growth, Export markets, Expor
JEL Classification: F1, F3, C, D4, D5, E, E01, E2, E3, E31, E42, E5, E
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