Announcements, Expectations, and Stock Returns with Asymmetric Information
56 Pages Posted: 31 Dec 2019 Last revised: 28 Dec 2022
Date Written: October 12, 2021
Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement-day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days predict announcement-day returns in the opposite direction. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic announcements quantitatively accounts for these findings. Under asymmetric information, average beliefs are not Bayesian: they underweight new information and positively predict subsequent belief errors. In addition, stock prices are partially driven by noise. Noise accumulates into stock prices on revision days but gets corrected upon announcements. Therefore, price changes on revision days negatively predict announcement day returns.
Keywords: Macroeconomic Announcement, Expectations Formation, Noisy Rational Expectations, Learning, Trading Volume
JEL Classification: D80, D83, D84, E37, G11, G12, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation