Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

24 Pages Posted: 11 Dec 2019

See all articles by Dawud Ansari

Dawud Ansari

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Franziska Holz

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Hashem al-Kuhlani

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Date Written: December 12, 2019

Abstract

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

Keywords: Energy outlook, Scenario, Energy modelling, Climate change, Survey

JEL Classification: Q40, Q47, Q54, C60

Suggested Citation

Ansari, Dawud and Holz, Franziska and al-Kuhlani, Hashem, Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights (December 12, 2019). DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1837 (2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3501509 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3501509

Dawud Ansari (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Franziska Holz

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Hashem Al-Kuhlani

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

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