Using Value-Focused Thinking and Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making to Evaluate Energy Transition Alternatives

FCN Working Paper No. 04/2019

29 Pages Posted: 31 Dec 2019

See all articles by Tim Höfer

Tim Höfer

RWTH Aachen University

Ruediger von Nitzsch

RWTH Aachen University - Department of Decision Theory and Financial Services

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University

Date Written: April 2019

Abstract

The future transformation of the energy system is a contentious topic, involving a variety of conflicting opinions and interests. In order to structure and evaluate these opinions, we develop a group decision-making process with professional stakeholders and energy experts. The aim of this process is to develop a common objective system for the energy transition and to evaluate four possible energy transition alternatives for Germany until 2030. The stakeholders are involved in every step of the decision-making process – the development of the alternatives, the definition of the objective system, and the final evaluation of the alternatives. We apply Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) to define and structure the objectives of the stakeholders and use Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) to evaluate the preferences of the stakeholders towards these objectives. The results show that a majority of the stakeholders prefers the energy transition alternative, which has the highest ambitions to limit climate change. A minority prefers the pan-European alternative where Germany’s power system is further integrated into the European energy system.

Keywords: Group Decision-Making, MAUT, Value-Focused Thinking, Energy Scenarios

JEL Classification: Q40, D70, D81, D90

Suggested Citation

Höfer, Tim and von Nitzsch, Ruediger and Madlener, Reinhard, Using Value-Focused Thinking and Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making to Evaluate Energy Transition Alternatives (April 2019). FCN Working Paper No. 04/2019. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3501616 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3501616

Tim Höfer (Contact Author)

RWTH Aachen University ( email )

Templergraben 55
52056 Aachen, 52056
Germany

Ruediger Von Nitzsch

RWTH Aachen University - Department of Decision Theory and Financial Services ( email )

Templergraben 55
52056 Aachen, 52056
Germany

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University ( email )

School of Business and Economics / E.ON ERC
Mathieustraße 10
Aachen, 52074
Germany
+49 241 80 49 820 (Phone)
+49 241 80 49 829 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/fcn

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
8
Abstract Views
105
PlumX Metrics