A Participatory Stakeholder Process for Evaluating Sustainable Energy Transition Scenarios

FCN Working Paper No. 06/2019

41 Pages Posted: 31 Dec 2019

See all articles by Tim Höfer

Tim Höfer

RWTH Aachen University

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University

Date Written: May 01, 2019


This paper presents an evaluation of four energy transition scenarios under consideration of multiple stakeholder opinions. We construct a multi-criteria group decision model that applies Value-Focused Thinking to construct a holistic objective system and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to evaluate the energy transition scenarios. Although the individual scenario evaluations show that the opinions of the stakeholders towards a sustainable energy transition differ largely, we are able to derive three main strands of opinions among the considered stakeholders. For this, we apply a clustering technique to identify and bundle the stakeholders into three groups. This bundling of stakeholder interests enables the identification of the most important policy recommendations for a sustainable energy transition. For the case of Germany, these are to reduce GHG and pollutant emissions and at the same time enable citizens’ participation, limit the visual impact on landscapes, and ensuring internationally comparable energy-related political frameworks for the economy. For the case of a sustainable energy transition in Germany, we find that the stakeholders considered prefer either the highly ambitious climate protection scenario (Scenario B) or the Pan-European scenario (Scenario C). The reference scenario, which was developed by the German Transmission System Operators (TSOs), turns out to be relatively unpopular.

Keywords: Value-Focused Thinking, Group Decision Making, MAUT, Energy Scenarios

JEL Classification: D70, D81, O52, Q48

Suggested Citation

Höfer, Tim and Madlener, Reinhard, A Participatory Stakeholder Process for Evaluating Sustainable Energy Transition Scenarios (May 01, 2019). FCN Working Paper No. 06/2019. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3501619 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3501619

Tim Höfer (Contact Author)

RWTH Aachen University ( email )

Templergraben 55
52056 Aachen, 52056

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University ( email )

School of Business and Economics / E.ON ERC
Mathieustraße 10
Aachen, 52074
+49 241 80 49 820 (Phone)
+49 241 80 49 829 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/fcn

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