Model izbora optimalne kratkoročne strategije pivovare (An Optimal Short-Term Strategy Selection Model for a Brewery)

Abstract

Croatian Abstract: Istraživanja pivarskoga sektora prepoznaju dva glavna endogena čimbenika koji utječu na potražnju neke marke industrijskoga piva: prodajnu cijenu te izdatak za marketing i ambalažu. No, dosadašnje su analize bile ograničene samo na pojedinačni utjecaj jednoga ili drugoga, uglavnom pritom koristeći neprimjeren model elastičnosti. Umjesto toga, ovaj rad predlaže dvodimenzionalnu sigmoidnu funkciju potražnje u obje varijable, koja je robusno prilagođena uvjetima promatranoga tržišta. S takvom funkcijom potražnje (podložnom ograničenjima tržišta i proizvodnoga kapaciteta) ugrađenom u financijski model društva, on postaje analitičko oruđe za maksimiziranje očekivane dobiti, tj. odabir optimalne kratkoročne strategije pivovare. Ovaj postupak ispitan je na modelu Zagrebačke pivovare, najvećega hrvatskog proizvođača piva, s obećavajućim rezultatima.

English Abstract: Research on the brewing sector identifies two major endogenous factors that impact demand for a certain industrial beer brand: the sales price and expenditure on marketing and packaging. However, prior analyses limited their scope to the individual impact of one or the other factor only, mostly using inadequate elasticity models. Instead, this paper proposes a two-dimensional sigmoid demand function in both variables, which is robustly adjusted to the conditions of the observed market. With such a demand function (subject to market and production capacity constraints) embedded into the company financial model, it becomes an analytical tool for the maximisation of expected profit, i.e. selection of the optimal short-term strategy for a brewery. This procedure has been tested on the model of Zagrebačka pivovara, the largest Croatian beer producer, with promising results.

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