Intuitive Beliefs

56 Pages Posted: 26 Dec 2019

See all articles by Jawwad Noor

Jawwad Noor

Boston University - Department of Economics

Date Written: December 24, 2019


Beliefs are intuitive if they rely on associative memory, which can be described as a network of associations between events. A belief-theoretic characterization of the model is provided, its uniqueness properties are established, and the intersection with the Bayesian model is characterized. The formation of intuitive beliefs is modelled after machine learning, whereby the network is shaped by past experience via minimization of the diļ¬€erence from an objective probability distribution. The model is shown to accommodate correlation misperception, the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect/conservatism, etc.

Keywords: Beliefs, Intuition, Associative memory, Boltzmann machine, Energy-Based Neural Networks, Non-Bayesian updating

JEL Classification: C45, D01, D90

Suggested Citation

Noor, Jawwad, Intuitive Beliefs (December 24, 2019). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2216 (2019), Available at SSRN: or

Jawwad Noor (Contact Author)

Boston University - Department of Economics ( email )

270 Bay State Road
Boston, MA 02215
United States

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