Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel

Interfaces 36(6):553-561, 2006

Posted: 10 Mar 2020 Last revised: 29 Apr 2020

See all articles by Edward H. Kaplan

Edward H. Kaplan

Yale School of Management

Alex Mintz

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya

Shaul Mishal

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: December 1, 2006

Abstract

Suicide bombings are the leading cause of death from terrorism in Israel. Counter-terror tactics, such as the targeted killings or preemptive arrests of terror leaders or suspects, are meant to prevent such attacks. To investigate whether these tactics are successful, we estimated via maximum likelihood a family of shot-noise models from monthly data covering 2001 through 2003 to see whether we could predict the rate of suicide-bombing attacks as a function of prevention tactics over time. Although preventive arrests appear to lower the rate of suicide-bombing attacks, targeted killings seem to be followed by an increase in the number of suicide bombings. In addition, limited evidence suggests that the probability of intercepting a suicide bomber en route to an attack increases with the expected number of suicide-bombing attacks. Such an endogenous relationship could imply an upper limit on the rate of successful suicide bombings.

Keywords: Terrorism, Suicide terrorism, Israel, Security policy

Suggested Citation

Kaplan, Edward H. and Mintz, Alex and Mishal, Shaul, Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel (December 1, 2006). Interfaces 36(6):553-561, 2006, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3509422

Edward H. Kaplan

Yale School of Management ( email )

135 Prospect Street
P.O. Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520-8200
United States
203-432-6031 (Phone)

Alex Mintz (Contact Author)

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya ( email )

P.O. Box 167
Herzliya, 46150
Israel

Shaul Mishal

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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