What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 28(3):225-235, 2005

Posted: 10 Mar 2020 Last revised: 29 Apr 2020

See all articles by Edward H. Kaplan

Edward H. Kaplan

Yale School of Management

Alex Mintz

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya

Shaul Mishal

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Claudio Samban

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: May 1, 2005

Abstract

An analysis of three years of suicide bombing data in Israel reveals an increase in such attacks through March 2002 followed by a steep decline through the end of 2003. The authors propose a terror-stock model that treats the suicide bombing attack rate as a function of the number of terrorists available to plan and execute suicide bombings. The intent of Israeli tactics such as targeted killings and preemptive arrests is to reduce the capacity of terror organizations to commit attacks. When fit to the data, this model suggests that the targeted killing of terror suspects sparks estimated recruitment to the terror stock that increases rather than decreases the rate of suicide bombings. Surprisingly, only the deaths of suspected terrorists, and not Palestinian civilians, are associated with such estimated recruitment. Although Israeli actions have reduced the rate of suicide bombings over time, it is preventive arrests rather than targeted killings that seem more responsible for this outcome.

Keywords: Terror-stock model, Terrorism, Suicide terrorism, Israel, Security policy

Suggested Citation

Kaplan, Edward H. and Mintz, Alex and Mishal, Shaul and Samban, Claudio, What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model (May 1, 2005). Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 28(3):225-235, 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3509440

Edward H. Kaplan

Yale School of Management ( email )

135 Prospect Street
P.O. Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520-8200
United States
203-432-6031 (Phone)

Alex Mintz (Contact Author)

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya ( email )

P.O. Box 167
Herzliya, 46150
Israel

Shaul Mishal

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Claudio Samban

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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