Managing the Energy Trilemma in the Philippines

Abstract

The transition to an energy mix with lower carbon emissions is hampered by the existence of the so-called energy trilemma. The primary consequence is a trade-off between various objectives of energy policy, e.g. equity and sustainability. This paper proposes a framework and methodology to manage the trilemma by applying methods related to multi-criteria decision making to assign weights to the various components of the trilemma. However, an expanded concept of energy security is adopted which translates to a version of the trilemma different from that of the World Energy Council. This study takes into account autarky, price, supply and carbon emissions. The values are generated by a software called PLEXOS and are incorporated in a welfare function. Policy options can be ranked using the values generated by the welfare function. In this manner, the trilemma can be managed even if it is not resolved.

Keywords: energy trilemma, energy security, equity, sustainability, multi-criteria decision making, welfare function