Unravelling Trade Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote
77 Pages Posted: 14 Jan 2020 Last revised: 21 Sep 2020
Date Written: December 2019
Abstract
This paper uses high frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the Brexit referendum on labour demand between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to the threat of trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports saw a differential decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.
Keywords: Brexit, Hiring, Labour Demand, online job adverts, trade policy, trade uncertainty
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