Unravelling Trade Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote

77 Pages Posted: 14 Jan 2020 Last revised: 21 Sep 2020

See all articles by Beata Smarzynska Javorcik

Beata Smarzynska Javorcik

University of Oxford - Department of Economics; European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

Benjamin Kett

University of Oxford

Katherine Stapleton

University of Oxford

Layla O'Kane

Lightcast; Emsi Burning Glass; Burning Glass Technologies

Date Written: December 2019

Abstract

This paper uses high frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the Brexit referendum on labour demand between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to the threat of trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports saw a differential decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.

Keywords: Brexit, Hiring, Labour Demand, online job adverts, trade policy, trade uncertainty

Suggested Citation

Smarzynska Javorcik, Beata and Kett, Benjamin and Stapleton, Katherine and O'Kane, Layla, Unravelling Trade Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote (December 2019). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14222, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3518560

Beata Smarzynska Javorcik (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Department of Economics ( email )

Manor Road Building
Manor Road
Oxford, OX1 3BJ
United Kingdom

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) ( email )

Benjamin Kett

University of Oxford ( email )

Katherine Stapleton

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Layla O'Kane

Lightcast ( email )

66 Long Wharf
Boston, MA 02110
United States

Emsi Burning Glass ( email )

66 Long Wharf, Floor 2
Boston, MA 02110

Burning Glass Technologies ( email )

One Lewis Wharf
Boston, MA 02110
United States

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