The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939

42 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2002  

Antoni Estevadeordal

Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)

Brian Frantz

United States Agency for International Development

Alan M. Taylor

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics; University of Virginia - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: November 2002

Abstract

Measured by the ratio of trade to output, the period 1870 1913 marked the birth of the first era of trade globalization and the period 1914 39 its death. What caused the boom and bust? We use an augmented gravity model to examine the gold standard, tariffs, and transport costs as determinants of trade. Until 1913 the rise of the gold standard and the fall in transport costs were the main trade-creating forces. As of 1929 the reversal was driven by higher transport costs. In the 1930s, the final collapse of the gold standard drove trade volumes even lower.

Suggested Citation

Estevadeordal, Antoni and Frantz, Brian and Taylor, Alan M., The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939 (November 2002). NBER Working Paper No. w9318. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=352001

Antoni Estevadeordal

Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) ( email )

1300 New York Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20577
United States
202-623-2614 (Phone)
202-623-3030 (Fax)

Brian Frantz

United States Agency for International Development ( email )

1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20577
United States

Alan M. Taylor (Contact Author)

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics ( email )

One Shields Drive
Davis, CA 95616-8578
United States
530-752-1572 (Phone)
530-752-9382 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/amtaylor/

University of Virginia - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 400182
Charlottesville, VA 22904-4182
United States
(434)-924-3177 (Phone)
(434)-982-2904 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://people.virginia.edu/~amt7u

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

HOME PAGE: http://nber.org

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://cepr.org

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