The 2020 Presidential Election: A Race Against Mortality
22 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2020 Last revised: 2 Mar 2020
Date Written: February 28, 2020
A year from the inauguration, four of the top five Democratic 2020 U.S. Presidential election candidates in the polls are in their seventies. Using actuarial data and the history of Presidential assassinations, the top two contenders, Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have a 24 to 31 percent chance of not surviving to the end of a hypothetical first term. The 77 and 78-year-old men’s chances of dying before the end of a second term as POTUS are between 46 and 56 percent.
Keywords: POTUS, Presidential elections, Actuarial tables, Mortality
JEL Classification: G22, I1, H55
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation