The 2020 Presidential Election: A Race Against Mortality

28 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2020 Last revised: 18 May 2020

See all articles by Linus Wilson

Linus Wilson

University of Louisiana at Lafayette - College of Business Administration

Date Written: May 15, 2020

Abstract

A year from the inauguration, four of the top five Democratic 2020 U.S. Presidential election candidates in the polls are in their seventies. Using actuarial data and the history of Presidential assassinations, the top two contenders, Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have a 24 to 31 percent chance of not surviving to the end of a hypothetical first term. The 77 and 78-year-old men’s chances of dying before the end of a second term as POTUS are between 46 and 56 percent.

Keywords: POTUS, Presidential elections, Actuarial tables, Mortality

JEL Classification: G22, I1, H55

Suggested Citation

Wilson, Linus, The 2020 Presidential Election: A Race Against Mortality (May 15, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3523251 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3523251

Linus Wilson (Contact Author)

University of Louisiana at Lafayette - College of Business Administration ( email )

Department of Economics & Finance
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Lafayette, LA 70504-0200
United States
(337) 482-6209 (Phone)
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HOME PAGE: http://www.linuswilson.com

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