Do We Need Higher-Order Comoments to Enhance Mean-Variance Portfolios? Evidence from a Simplified Jump Process

Abstract

We propose a joint distribution that decomposes asset returns into two independent components: an elliptical innovation (Gaussian) and a systematic non-elliptical latent process. The paper provides a tractable approach to estimate the underlying parameters and, hence, the assets' exposures to the latent non-elliptical factor. Additionally, the framework incorporates higher-order moments, such as skewness and kurtosis, for portfolio selection. Taking into account estimation risk, we investigate the economic contribution of the non-elliptical term. Overall, we find weak empirical evidence to support the inclusion of the non-elliptical term and, hence, the higher-order comoments. Nonetheless, our findings support the mean-variance (MV) decision rule that incorporates the elliptical term alone. Excluding the non-elliptical term results in more robust mean-variance estimates and, thus, enhanced out-of-sample performance. This evidence is significant among stocks that exhibit a strong deviation from the Gaussian property. Moreover, it is most pronounced during market turmoils, when exposures to the latent factor are highest.

Keywords: Utility Theory, Non-Elliptical Distributions, Shrinkage, Multivariate Analysis

JEL Classification: C13, C44, C46, G11