Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China

7 Pages Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020

See all articles by Maimuna S. Majumder

Maimuna S. Majumder

Boston Children's Hospital - Computational Health Informatics Program; Harvard University - Harvard Medical School

Kenneth D. Mandl

Boston Children's Hospital - Computational Health Informatics Program

Date Written: January 26, 2020

Abstract

Between December 1, 2019 and January 26, 2020, nearly 3000 cases of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China have been reported. In this short analysis, we combine publicly available cumulative case data from the ongoing outbreak with phenomenological modeling methods to conduct an early transmissibility assessment. Our model suggests that the basic reproduction number associated with the outbreak (at time of writing) may range from 2.0 to 3.1. Though these estimates are preliminary and subject to change, they are consistent with previous findings regarding the transmissibility of the related SARS-Coronavirus and indicate the possibility of epidemic potential.

Keywords: novel coronavirus, Wuhan, China, transmission, emerging infectious diseases

Suggested Citation

Majumder, Maimuna and Mandl, Kenneth D., Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China (January 26, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3524675 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3524675

Maimuna Majumder (Contact Author)

Boston Children's Hospital - Computational Health Informatics Program ( email )

United States

Harvard University - Harvard Medical School ( email )

25 Shattuck St
Boston, MA 02115
United States

Kenneth D. Mandl

Boston Children's Hospital - Computational Health Informatics Program ( email )

300 Longwood Avenue
LANDMARK 5506, MAIL STOP BCH3187
Boston, MA n/a 02215
United States
6173554145 (Phone)
02115 (Fax)

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