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Impact of Poverty Reduction on Access to Water and Sanitation in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries: Country-Specific Bayesian Projections to 2030

34 Pages Posted: 9 Feb 2020

See all articles by Khin Thet Swe

Khin Thet Swe

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Md. Mizanur Rahman

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Md. Shafiur Rahman

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Yvonne Teng

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Sarah Krull Abe

National Cancer Center, Japan; National Cancer Center Hospital

Masahiro Hashizume

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Kenji Shibuya

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

More...

Abstract

Background: In 2017, 785 million people globally lacked access to basic drinking water services and 2 billion people lived without basic sanitation services, mostly in low- and lower-middle-income countries. We aimed to predict the coverage of access to water and sanitation services by 2030, under two conditions: following the current trends and accelerating poverty reduction.

Methods: Households reporting access to basic drinking water services, basic sanitation facilities and practicing open defecation were extracted from 210 nationally representative Demographic Health Surveys and Multiple Cluster Indicator Surveys (1994-2016) including 51 countries. A Bayesian hierarchical, mixed effect linear regression model was developed to predict the indicators in 2030 at the national, rural-urban and wealth specific levels. A Bayesian regression model with 95% reduction in poverty by 2030 was applied to assess the contribution of poverty reduction to these indicators.

Findings: Out of 51 countries, only nine (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Ghana, India, Nepal, Pakistan, The Philippines, Togo and Vietnam) were predicted to reach over 90% coverage in access to basic services of drinking water by 2030. However, none achieved 90% coverage for basic sanitation services. Twenty-one countries achieved the target of less than 10% households practicing open defecation. The rural-urban and wealth disparities in access to basic water and sanitation services, especially sanitation, were more pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa. By accelerating poverty reduction, the sanitation sector and households in rural settings benefitted considerably.

Interpretation: Achieving poverty eradication targets has a substantial positive impact on access to basic water supply and sanitation services. However, many low- and lower-middle-income countries will struggle to achieve the goal of universal access to basic services, especially in the sanitation sector.

Funding Statement: KTS was funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declared there was no conflict of interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.

Keywords: water supply and sanitation; inequality in access to water supply and sanitation; impact of poverty reduction; South Asia; Southeast Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa

Suggested Citation

Swe, Khin Thet and Rahman, Md. Mizanur and Rahman, Md. Shafiur and Teng, Yvonne and Abe, Sarah Krull and Hashizume, Masahiro and Shibuya, Kenji, Impact of Poverty Reduction on Access to Water and Sanitation in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries: Country-Specific Bayesian Projections to 2030 (January 27, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3526298 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3526298

Khin Thet Swe (Contact Author)

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy ( email )

Hongo 7-3-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 113-8657
Japan

Md. Mizanur Rahman

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Hongo 7-3-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 113-8657
Japan

Md. Shafiur Rahman

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Hongo 7-3-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 113-8657
Japan

Yvonne Teng

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Hongo 7-3-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 113-8657
Japan

Sarah Krull Abe

National Cancer Center, Japan

Kashiwa 277-8577
Japan

National Cancer Center Hospital

Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screenin
Tokyo
Japan

Masahiro Hashizume

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Hongo 7-3-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 113-8657
Japan

Kenji Shibuya

University of Tokyo - Department of Global Health Policy

Hongo 7-3-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 113-8657
Japan

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